The planet faces a significant temperature increase in the next 50 years compared to the last 6,000 years combined. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that the rise of global temperatures will alter the habitability of the planet’s land unevenly spread out. Currently, high latitudes are warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world. At the same time, we see the expansion of drylands. Research shows that by 2100, some places outside for a few hours in places like India and Eastern China could cause death. Besides rising temperatures, rising sea levels could also erase the land of homes of over 150 million people by 2050. Current weather phenomena have also caused agricultural lands to become inhabitable due to drought and flood, causing failed crops. With these changes, people are now fleeing their homes before their situation could get even worse, becoming climate migrants.
The United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM) recognizes the reality of climate migrants as it constantly seeks viable solutions to address their needs. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reports that over 17.2 million people have left their homes past 2018 due to climate-related reasons. The IOM also reminds us that climate migrants are not "climate refugees." The latter term reflects an image of escaping war and conflict. However, this statement fails to recognize migration in the context of climate change in key aspects. Key aspects of climate migrants are the climate migration we see is mainly the internal movement of people. Simultaneously, migration is not necessarily forced, rather a matter of choice, with countries needing to view this issue in a migration management position. Another key aspect highlights that climate migration discussions should focus on preventive measures and invest in climate and environmental solutions for the planet so people would not have to leave their homes.
The World Bank reports that if no action is taken, by 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America would see 86 million, 40 million, and 17 million internal climate migrants, respectively.
In particular, the Philippines faces a high level of migration where internal migration is mainly rural to urban and rural to rural. Research shows the potential effect of climate on migration through agriculture productivity. Here, the increase in temperature and typhoons play a significant negative impact on rice yield. The El Nino in Northern Mindanao in 2015-2016 caused extensive crop failure. Such crop failure caused farmers and undocumented women's migration towards other towns or nearby cities for odd jobs. Climate-related migration in the Philippines also prompts seasonal migration. After Typhoon Reming in 2007 and its effects on Sorsogon City, Sorsogon Bay faces irregular peak fishing seasons for over 5,000 fishing households. With that, family members become seasonal migrants who try to reduce the risk from climate-related anomalies by leaving their homes looking for alternative livelihood outside the province like construction work for males and domestic work for women.
On a greater scale, the trend shows that as people run short of food, they move toward the cities. Here, cities are put to their limit, stretching infrastructure, resources, and services. Food would need to be imported, relying on struggling farms and increasing food costs. Simultaneously, people move toward the slums with little water or electricity, becoming more vulnerable to flooding and other disasters. The World Bank also estimates that as many as 1.7 million people migrate away from rural communities toward Mexico City by 2035. Climate migration showcases the belief that the city is a refuge. However, these refugees are not all sunshine and rainbows with the reality of poverty and crime, particularly in slumlike communities. Here, domestic abuse rises, sanitary conditions decline, and gangs extort and recruit as seen in the reality in parts of El Salvador.
Lastly, climate migration also negatively impacts the health of migrants. A research article published last 2012 cites the different possible effects on health. Even if the range and extent of health risks associated with climate migration cannot be clearly seen, evidence shows more significant risks than benefits. The 2011 severe drought in East Africa has caused death, high rates of acute malnutrition among thousands of people as well as the risk of infectious disease. This climate crisis presents the increase of migration due to famine's health risks, showcasing people's health-seeking behavior. A key characteristic of climate migration would be the migration of rural to urban communities. With the increase of urban populations, the expansion of slums or vulnerable neighborhoods has been observed. Evidence shows a higher risk of the development of chronic diseases in rural to urban migrants. Yet, the effects of climate migration on health still need to be further discussed.
The effects of climate migration encompass different aspects such as urbanization, health, and food insecurity to name a few. Climate migration at the end of the day represents the failure to address climate change at a more extensive policy level, affecting the most vulnerable communities. The most vulnerable communities choose to leave their homes for a better future. Yet, the effects of climate migration could still be mitigated, each action counts. More migrants will move towards cities without action, food insecurity will rise, and more people will suffer.
About the contributor
Originally from the Philippines, Aileen Gamallo is a sophomore student at Waseda University, Japan studying the social sciences with a focus on community and social development. Her interests include environmental sustainability and interesting readings about almost anything. When not doing homework or reading she enjoys relaxing by appreciating kpop and practicing Japanese by watching anime and movies.
References:
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[2] Bohra-Mishra, Pratikshya, Michael Oppenheimer, Ruohong Cai, Shuaizhang Feng, and Rachel Licker. 2017. “Climate Variability and Migration in the Philippines.” Population and Environment 38(3):286–308. doi: 10.1007/s11111-016-0263-x.
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